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Creators/Authors contains: "Rovero, Francesco"

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  1. Abstract Thermophilization is the directional change in species community composition towards greater relative abundances of species associated with warmer environments. This process is well-documented in temperate and Neotropical plant communities, but it is uncertain whether this phenomenon occurs elsewhere in the tropics. Here we extend the search for thermophilization to equatorial Africa, where lower tree diversity compared to other tropical forest regions and different biogeographic history could affect community responses to climate change. Using re-census data from 17 forest plots in three mountain regions of Africa, we find a consistent pattern of thermophilization in tree communities. Mean rates of thermophilization were +0.0086 °C·y−1in the Kigezi Highlands (Uganda), +0.0032 °C·y−1in the Virunga Mountains (Rwanda-Uganda-Democratic Republic of the Congo) and +0.0023 °C·y−1in the Udzungwa Mountains (Tanzania). Distinct from other forests, both recruitment and mortality were important drivers of thermophilzation in the African plots. The forests studied currently act as a carbon sink, but the consequences of further thermophilization are unclear. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  2. Loreau, Michel (Ed.)
    Tropical forests hold most of Earth’s biodiversity and a higher concentration of threatened mammals than other biomes. As a result, some mammal species persist almost exclusively in protected areas, often within extensively transformed and heavily populated landscapes. Other species depend on remaining remote forested areas with sparse human populations. However, it remains unclear how mammalian communities in tropical forests respond to anthropogenic pressures in the broader landscape in which they are embedded. As governments commit to increasing the extent of global protected areas to prevent further biodiversity loss, identifying the landscape-level conditions supporting wildlife has become essential. Here, we assessed the relationship between mammal communities and anthropogenic threats in the broader landscape. We simultaneously modeled species richness and community occupancy as complementary metrics of community structure, using a state-of-the-art community model parameterized with a standardized pan-tropical data set of 239 mammal species from 37 forests across 3 continents. Forest loss and fragmentation within a 50-km buffer were associated with reduced occupancy in monitored communities, while species richness was unaffected by them. In contrast, landscape-scale human density was associated with reduced mammal richness but not occupancy, suggesting that sensitive species have been extirpated, while remaining taxa are relatively unaffected. Taken together, these results provide evidence of extinction filtering within tropical forests triggered by anthropogenic pressure occurring in the broader landscape. Therefore, existing and new reserves may not achieve the desired biodiversity outcomes without concurrent investment in addressing landscape-scale threats. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 13, 2026
  3. Abstract Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species’ geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium‐ to large‐bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200 km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller‐bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground‐based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning. 
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  4. Abstract Many animal–environment interactions are mediated by the physical forms of the environment, especially in tropical forests, where habitats are structurally complex and highly diverse. Higher structural complexity, measured as habitat surface area, may provide increased resource availability for animals, leading to higher animal diversity. Greater habitat surface area supports increased animal diversity in other systems, such as coral reefs and forest canopies, but it is uncertain how this relationship translates to communities of highly mobile, terrestrial mammal species inhabiting forest floors. We tested the relative importance of forest floor habitat structure, encompassing vegetation and topographic structure, in determining species occupancy and functional diversity of medium to large mammals using data from a tropical forest in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. We related species occupancies and diversity obtained from a multispecies occupancy model with ground‐level habitat structure measurements obtained from a novel head‐mounted active remote sensing device, the Microsoft HoloLens. We found that habitat surface area was a significant predictor of mean species occupancy and had a significant positive relationship with functional dispersion. The positive relationships indicate that surface area of tropical forest floors may play an important role in promoting mammal occupancy and functional diversity at the microhabitat scale. In particular, habitat surface area had higher mean effects on occupancy for carnivorous and social species. These results support a habitat surface area–diversity relationship on tropical forest floors for mammals. 
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  5. Changes in lunar illumination alter the balance of risks and opportunities for animals, influencing activity patterns and species interactions. We examined if and how terrestrial mammals respond to the lunar cycle in some of the darkest places: the floors of tropical forests. We analysed long-term camera trapping data on 86 mammal species from 17 protected forests on three continents. Conservative categorization of activity during the night revealed pronounced avoidance of moonlight (lunar phobia) in 12 species, compared with pronounced attraction to moonlight (lunar philia) in only three species. However, half of all species in our study responded to lunar phases, either changing how nocturnal they were, altering their overall level of activity, or both. Avoidance of full moon was more common, exhibited by 30% of all species compared with 20% of species that exhibited attraction. Nocturnal species, especially rodents, were over-represented among species that avoided full moon. Artiodactyla were more prominent among species attracted to full moon. Our findings indicate that lunar phases influence animal behaviour even beneath the forest canopy. Such impacts may be exacerbated in degraded and fragmented forests. Our study offers a baseline representing relatively intact and well-protected contexts together with an intuitive approach for detecting activity shifts in response to environmental change. 
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  6. Abstract AimTropical regions harbour over half of the world's mammals and birds, but how their communities have assembled over evolutionary timescales remains unclear. To compare eco‐evolutionary assembly processes between tropical mammals and birds, we tested how hypotheses concerning niche conservatism, environmental stability, environmental heterogeneity and time‐for‐speciation relate to tropical vertebrate community phylogenetic and functional structure. LocationTropical rainforests worldwide. Time periodPresent. Major taxa studiedGround‐dwelling and ground‐visiting mammals and birds. MethodsWe used in situ observations of species identified from systematic camera trap sampling as realized communities from 15 protected tropical rainforests in four tropical regions worldwide. We quantified standardized phylogenetic and functional structure for each community and estimated the multi‐trait phylogenetic signal (PS) in ecological strategies for the four regional species pools of mammals and birds. Using linear regression models, we test three non‐mutually exclusive hypotheses by comparing the relative importance of colonization time, palaeo‐environmental changes in temperature and land cover since 3.3 Mya, contemporary seasonality in temperature and productivity and environmental heterogeneity for predicting community phylogenetic and functional structure. ResultsPhylogenetic and functional structure showed non‐significant yet varying tendencies towards clustering or dispersion in all communities. Mammals had stronger multi‐trait PS in ecological strategies than birds (mean PS: mammal = 0.62, bird = 0.43). Distinct dominant processes were identified for mammal and bird communities. For mammals, colonization time and elevation range significantly predicted phylogenetic clustering and functional dispersion tendencies respectively. For birds, elevation range and contemporary temperature seasonality significantly predicted phylogenetic and functional clustering tendencies, respectively, while habitat diversity significantly predicted functional dispersion tendencies. Main conclusionsOur results reveal different eco‐evolutionary assembly processes structuring contemporary tropical mammal and bird communities over evolutionary timescales that have shaped tropical diversity. Our study identified marked differences among taxonomic groups in the relative importance of historical colonization and sensitivity to environmental change. 
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  7. Abstract The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  8. Abstract AimEcological and anthropogenic factors shift the abundances of dominant and rare tree species within local forest communities, thus affecting species composition and ecosystem functioning. To inform forest and conservation management it is important to understand the drivers of dominance and rarity in local tree communities. We answer the following research questions: (1) What are the patterns of dominance and rarity in tree communities? (2) Which ecological and anthropogenic factors predict these patterns? And (3) what is the extinction risk of locally dominant and rare tree species? LocationGlobal. Time period1990–2017. Major taxa studiedTrees. MethodsWe used 1.2 million forest plots and quantified local tree dominance as the relative plot basal area of the single most dominant species and local rarity as the percentage of species that contribute together to the least 10% of plot basal area. We mapped global community dominance and rarity using machine learning models and evaluated the ecological and anthropogenic predictors with linear models. Extinction risk, for example threatened status, of geographically widespread dominant and rare species was evaluated. ResultsCommunity dominance and rarity show contrasting latitudinal trends, with boreal forests having high levels of dominance and tropical forests having high levels of rarity. Increasing annual precipitation reduces community dominance, probably because precipitation is related to an increase in tree density and richness. Additionally, stand age is positively related to community dominance, due to stem diameter increase of the most dominant species. Surprisingly, we find that locally dominant and rare species, which are geographically widespread in our data, have an equally high rate of elevated extinction due to declining populations through large‐scale land degradation. Main conclusionsBy linking patterns and predictors of community dominance and rarity to extinction risk, our results suggest that also widespread species should be considered in large‐scale management and conservation practices. 
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  9. Abstract Wildlife must adapt to human presence to survive in the Anthropocene, so it is critical to understand species responses to humans in different contexts. We used camera trapping as a lens to view mammal responses to changes in human activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across 163 species sampled in 102 projects around the world, changes in the amount and timing of animal activity varied widely. Under higher human activity, mammals were less active in undeveloped areas but unexpectedly more active in developed areas while exhibiting greater nocturnality. Carnivores were most sensitive, showing the strongest decreases in activity and greatest increases in nocturnality. Wildlife managers must consider how habituation and uneven sensitivity across species may cause fundamental differences in human–wildlife interactions along gradients of human influence. 
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